SUBROUTINE MDL1(S,J,MATRIX,A,HEADER,YRONE,JPRINT,OPTION) INTEGER S,SS,YEAR,YRONE,BANDS,SSS,SSSS,OPTION DOUBLE PRECISION LAMBDA,MATRIX,LOWPHI,LOWLAM,LOWAHT, 1 LOWDRT,MLS,LOWGM,LOWMLS,COMP01,COMP02,COMP03 DIMENSION MATRIX(21,21), A(20) CHARACTER HEADER*80, FORMT*30 DOUBLE PRECISION LOWAMS,HIAMS,MAT DOUBLE PRECISION R,C,T,THETA,AHAT,GAMMA,PHI,E,A,AVEPHI DOUBLE PRECISION VARPHI,VARLAM,SDPHI,SDLAM,CIPHI,CILAM,DF DOUBLE PRECISION CHISQ,CHISUM,GM,WT,AM,WTAM,CV,SUMCV,DRATE DOUBLE PRECISION VARGM,SDGM,CIGM,HIPHI,HILAM,FACTOR,HIGM DOUBLE PRECISION VARAHT,SDAHAT,CIAHAT,DUMAHT,SDDRT,CIDRT DOUBLE PRECISION HIAHT,HIDRT,VARMLS,SDMLS,HIMLS DOUBLE PRECISION COVFS, COVFFP,COVFSP,SUMFIV,COVFAS DOUBLE PRECISION COVFPS,COVSSP,COVFF2,CORRFS,CORRSS,CORSFP DOUBLE PRECISION SDAH, VARAH,PROD,AVAHAT,THCHI DOUBLE PRECISION SUMCOV,SUMVAR,VARAMS,SDAMS,CIAMS DOUBLE PRECISION SUMA,SUMR,SDMRR,VARMRR DOUBLE PRECISION CIMRR,LOWMRR,HIMRR,SIGMAS DOUBLE PRECISION YYY,VAROFF,COVAR1 DOUBLE PRECISION Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4,Q5,Q6,Q7,Q8,Q9,Q10,Q11 DOUBLE PRECISION STAT1,STAT2,STAT3,STAT4,STAT5,STAT6,STAT7,STAT8 DOUBLE PRECISION STAT9,STAT5A,STAT5B,SLOPSF,SLOPYF,RHOSF,RHOYF DOUBLE PRECISION TMSPAC DIMENSION THCHI(100) COMMON /MDL1CM/ IMAT(20),R(20),C(20),T(20) 1 , THETA(20),AHAT(20),GAMMA(20),PHI(20) 1 , LAMBDA(20),E(20,20),VARPHI(20),VARLAM(20) 1 , SDPHI(20),SDLAM(20),CIPHI(20),CILAM(20) 1 , CHISQ(20,20),CV(20),WT(20),MAT(20,20) 1 , COVFS(20),COVFFP(20),COVFSP(20) 1 , COVFPS(20),COVSSP(20),COVFF2(20),CORRFS(20) 1 , CORRSS(20),CORSFP(20),N(20) 1 , SDAH(20),VARAH(20),ISAVE(20) 1 , IYEAR(21),IDATA(21,21) ,PML(20) 1 , YYY(20),VAROFF(20),COVAR1(20),TMSPAC(448) DATA THCHI/3.84D0,5.99D0,7.81D0,9.49D0,11.10D0,12.60D0,14.10D0, 1 15.50D0,16.90D0,18.30D0,19.70D0,21.00D0,22.40D0,23.70D0, 2 25.00D0,26.30D0,27.60D0,28.90D0,30.10D0,31.40D0,32.70D0, 3 33.90D0,35.20D0,36.40D0,37.70D0,38.90D0,40.10D0,41.30D0, 4 42.60D0,43.80D0,44.98D0,46.19D0,47.40D0,48.60D0,49.80D0, 5 50.99D0,52.19D0,53.38D0,54.57D0,55.76D0,56.94D0,58.12D0, 6 59.30D0,60.48D0,61.65D0,62.83D0,63.99D0,65.16D0,66.34D0, 7 67.50D0,68.67D0,69.83D0,70.99D0,72.15D0,73.30D0,74.46D0, 8 75.62D0,76.78D0,77.93D0,79.08D0,80.23D0,81.38D0,82.53D0, 9 83.67D0,84.81D0,85.96D0,87.10D0,88.25D0,89.38D0,90.53D0, $ 91.66D0,92.80D0,93.94D0,95.08D0,96.21D0,97.34D0,98.48D0, $ 99.61D0,100.74D0,101.88D0,103.00D0,104.14D0,105.26D0,106.39D0, $107.52D0,108.64D0,109.77D0,110.89D0,112.02D0,113.14D0,114.26D0, $115.38D0,116.51D0,117.63D0,118.75D0,119.87D0,120.98D0,122.10D0, $123.22D0,124.34D0/ C INITIALIZE ROW AND COLUMN TOTAL VECTORS AM=0.0 AVEPHI=0.0 CHISUM=0.0 DF=0.0 SUMDF=0.0 GM=0.0 SUMCV=0.0 WTAM=0.0 VARGM=0.0 SDGM=0.0 CIGM=0.0 LOWLAM=0.0 LOWPHI=0.0 HILAM=0.0 HIPHI=0.0 FACTOR=0.0 VARMLS=0.0 DO 5 JJ=1,J R(JJ)=0.0 C(JJ)=0.0 PHI(JJ)=0.0 VARPHI(JJ)=0.0 SDPHI(JJ)=0.0 CIPHI(JJ)=0.0 THETA(JJ)=0.0 GAMMA(JJ)=0.0 AHAT(JJ)=0.0 T(JJ)=0.0 ISAVE(JJ)=0 WT(JJ)=0.0 CV(JJ)=0.0 LAMBDA(JJ)=0.0 VARLAM(JJ)=0.0 SDLAM(JJ)=0.0 CILAM(JJ)=0.0 COVFS(JJ)=0.0 COVFFP(JJ)=0.0 COVFSP(JJ)=0.0 COVFPS(JJ)=0.0 COVSSP(JJ)=0.0 COVFF2(JJ)=0.0 CORRFS(JJ)=0.0 CORRSS(JJ)=0.0 CORSFP(JJ)=0.0 VARAH(JJ)=0.0 SDAH(JJ)=0.0 JPRINT=1 DO 5 I=1,S E(I,JJ)=0.0 CHISQ(I,JJ)=0.0 MAT(I,JJ)=MATRIX(I,JJ) IDATA(I,JJ)=MATRIX(I,JJ) 5 CONTINUE DO 10 I=1,S N(I)=A(I) 10 CONTINUE C CALCULATE ROW AND COLUMN TOTALS DO 100 I=1,S DO 100 II=1,J R(I)=R(I)+MATRIX(I,II) 100 CONTINUE IF (OPTION.EQ.4) GO TO 847 C CALL MOD1W1 C PRINT BANDING VECTOR AND RECOVERY MATRIX WRITE (6,65) HEADER 65 FORMAT (33X,A/) WRITE (6,70) 70 FORMAT (' BANDING AND RECOVERY INPUT DATA'/) WRITE (6,75) 75 FORMAT (/' ','YEAR NUMBER',35X,'RECOVERY MATRIX') WRITE (6,80) 80 FORMAT (' ',5X,'BANDED') WRITE (6,85) 85 FORMAT ('+','____ ______',35X,'_______________'/) YEAR=YRONE-1 DO 95 I=1,S YEAR=YEAR+1 IS=(I-1)*6+1 WRITE(FORMT,90) IS WRITE (6,FORMT) YEAR,N(I),(IDATA(I,JJ),JJ=I,J) 90 FORMAT ('(1X,I4,1X,I5,',I2,'X,20I6)') 95 CONTINUE SUMA=0.0 SUMR=0.0 DO 105 I=1,S SUMA=SUMA+A(I) SUMR=SUMR+R(I) 105 CONTINUE DO 115 II=1,J DO 110 I=1,S C(II)=C(II)+MATRIX(I,II) 110 CONTINUE IF (C(II)) 120,120,115 115 CONTINUE GO TO 125 120 J=II-1 125 T(1)=R(1) DO 130 I=2,S T(I)=T(I-1)-C(I-1)+R(I) 130 CONTINUE C CALCULATE THETA, AHAT AND GAMMA VALUES DO 135 I=1,S THETA(I)=R(I)/A(I) AHAT(I)=(C(I)*THETA(I))/T(I) 135 CONTINUE IF (J-S) 150,150,140 140 SS=S+1 DO 145 I=SS,J GAMMA(I)=(C(I)*AHAT(S))/C(S) 145 CONTINUE 150 SS=S-1 WRITE (6,155) 155 FORMAT (//' ','INTERMEDIATE STATISTICS'/) IF (JPRINT) 160,240,160 160 WRITE (6,165) 165 FORMAT (/4X,'I',10X,'C(I)',6X,'R(I)',6X,'T(I)',6X,'N(I)',5X, 1 'GAMMA(I)',2X,' RHO(I) '/) YEAR=YRONE-1 DO 175 I=1,J YEAR=YEAR+1 WRITE (6,170) YEAR,C(I),R(I),T(I),A(I),GAMMA(I),THETA(I) 170 FORMAT (2X,I4,3X,4(2X,F8.1),2X,2(2X,F8.5)) 175 CONTINUE WRITE (6,180) SUMR,SUMA 180 FORMAT (2X,'TOTALS',13X,F8.1,11X,F9.1) WRITE (6,185) 185 FORMAT (//29X,'RECOVERY RATE F(I) (%)',36X,'DIRECT RECOVER' 1,'Y RATE R(I,I)/N(I)') WRITE (6,190) 190 FORMAT ('+',15X,'_______________________________________________', 1'____________',8X,'___________________________________________') WRITE (6,195) 195 FORMAT (7X,'I',8X,'ESTIMATE',14X,'STANDARD',14X,'95% CONFIDE', 1'NCE',10X,'ESTIMATE',9X,'STANDARD',6X,'95% CONFIDENCE') WRITE (6,200) 200 FORMAT (38X,' ERROR ',16X,'INTERVAL',30X,' ERROR ',8X,'INT' 1,'ERVAL') WRITE (6,205) 205 FORMAT ('+',15X,'________',14X,'_________',13X,'______________',10 1X,'________',9X,'_________',5X,'______________'/) YEAR=YRONE-1 SUMONE=0.0 SUMTWO=0.0 DO 215 I=1,S YEAR=YEAR+1 VARAHT=(AHAT(I)/(A(I)*THETA(I)))*(AHAT(I)*(1.0-THETA(I))+(A(I)*(TH 1ETA(I)-AHAT(I)))/(C(I)/AHAT(I))) IF (I.LT.S) SUMONE=SUMONE+VARAHT SDAHAT=DSQRT(VARAHT)*100.0 CIAHAT=1.96*SDAHAT DUMAHT=AHAT(I)*100.0 DRATE=MATRIX(I,I)/A(I) SDDRT=DSQRT((DRATE*(1.0-DRATE))/A(I))*100.0 CIDRT=1.96*SDDRT DRATE=DRATE*100.0 HIAHT=DUMAHT+CIAHAT LOWAHT=0.0 IF (DUMAHT.GE.CIAHAT) LOWAHT=DUMAHT-CIAHAT HIDRT=DRATE+CIDRT LOWDRT=0.0 IF (DRATE.GE.CIDRT) LOWDRT=DRATE-CIDRT WRITE (6,210) YEAR,DUMAHT,SDAHAT,LOWAHT,HIAHT,DRATE,SDDRT,LOWDRT,H 1IDRT 210 FORMAT (5X,I4,7X,F7.3,16X,F7.3,11X,F7.3,' - ',F7.3,10X,F7.3,10X, 1 F7.3,4X,F7.3,' - ',F7.3/) 215 CONTINUE SUAHAT=0.0 AVAHAT=0.0 DO 220 I=1,SS SUAHAT=SUAHAT+AHAT(I) 220 CONTINUE AVAHAT=(SUAHAT/SS)*100.0 WRITE (6,225) AVAHAT 225 FORMAT (/' ','ARITHMETIC MEAN RECOVERY RATE (EXCEPT YEAR K) = ',F9 1.3) SUMTWO=0.0 VARMRR=SUMONE/(S-1)**2 SDMRR=DSQRT(VARMRR)*100.0 WRITE (6,230) SDMRR 230 FORMAT (' STANDARD ERROR OF THE MEAN RECOVERY RATE = ',F9.3) CIMRR=1.96*SDMRR LOWMRR=AVAHAT-CIMRR HIMRR=AVAHAT+CIMRR IF (LOWMRR.LT.0.0) LOWMRR=0.0 WRITE (6,235) LOWMRR,HIMRR 235 FORMAT (' 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR MEAN RECOVERY RATE =',F8. 12,' - ',F8.2) CALL TEST(S,MATRIX,A,THCHI) 240 DO 245 I=1,SS PHI(I)=((R(I)/N(I))-AHAT(I))/((R(I+1)+1)/(N(I+1)+1)) PML(I)=((T(I+1)-R(I+1))/T(I))*(R(I)/R(I+1))*(A(I+1)/A(I)) AM=AM+PHI(I) GM=GM+DLOG(PHI(I)) 245 CONTINUE AVEPHI=AM/SS AM=(AM/SS)*100.0 GM=(DEXP(GM/SS))*100.0 C CALCULATE MATRIX OF EXPECTED RECOVERIES DO 250 I=1,S E(I,I)=A(I)*AHAT(I) 250 CONTINUE SS=S-1 DO 260 JJ=2,S II=JJ-1 DO 260 I=1,II PROD=1.0 DO 255 K=I,II PROD=PROD*PML(K) 255 CONTINUE E(I,JJ)=A(I)*PROD*AHAT(JJ) 260 CONTINUE IF (J-S) 280,280,265 265 SS=S+1 PML(S)=1.0 DO 275 JJ=SS,J DO 275 I=1,S PROD=1.0 DO 270 K=I,S PROD=PROD*PML(K) 270 CONTINUE E(I,JJ)=A(I)*PROD*GAMMA(JJ) 275 CONTINUE PHI(S)=0.0 280 DF=((S*J)-0.5*S*(S-1))-(J+S-1) DO 300 I=1,S DO 285 M=1,J IF (E(I,J-M+1).GT.2.) GO TO 290 E(I,J)=E(I,J)+E(I,J-M) E(I,J-M)=0.0 IF (E(I,J).GT.2.) GO TO 295 285 CONTINUE 290 ISAVE(I)=M-1 GO TO 300 295 ISAVE(I)=M C ISAVE(I) = NUMBER OF DEGREES OF FREEDOM LOST IN ROW I 300 CONTINUE SS=S-1 DO 315 I=1,SS VARPHI(I)=(PHI(I)*PHI(I))*(1.0/R(I)+1.0/R(I+1)+1.0/(T(I+1)-R(I+1)) 1-1.0/A(I)-1.0/A(I+1)-1.0/T(I)) SDPHI(I)=(DSQRT(VARPHI(I)))*100.0 CIPHI(I)=1.96*SDPHI(I) CV(I)=SDPHI(I)/PHI(I) SUMCV=SUMCV+CV(I) IF (1.0-PHI(I)) 310,310,305 305 LAMBDA(I)=AHAT(I)/(1.0-PHI(I)) VARLAM(I)=((LAMBDA(I)*LAMBDA(I))/((1.0-PHI(I))**2))*(1.0/R(I)-1.0/ 1T(I)-1.0/A(I)+(PHI(I)**2)*(1.0/R(I+1)+1.0/(T(I+1)-R(I+1))-1.0/A(I+ 21))+(1.0-PHI(I))**2/C(I)) SDLAM(I)=DSQRT(VARLAM(I))*100.0 CILAM(I)=1.96*SDLAM(I) LAMBDA(I)=LAMBDA(I)*100.0 GO TO 315 310 LAMBDA(I)=999999.0 SDLAM(I)=999999.0 CILAM(I)=999999.0 315 CONTINUE SDLAM(S)=999999.0 CILAM(S)=999999.0 IF (1.0-AVEPHI) 320,325,325 320 LAMBDA(S)=999999.0 GO TO 330 325 LAMBDA(S)=(AHAT(S)/(1.0-AVEPHI))*100.0 330 CONTINUE DO 355 I=1,SS WT(I)=CV(I)/SUMCV VARGM=VARGM+(VARPHI(I)/(PHI(I)**2)) IF (I-SS) 335,340,335 335 FACTOR=FACTOR+(1.0/R(I))*(1.0/A(I)) 340 PHI(I)=PHI(I)*100.0 IF (PHI(I)-100.0) 350,350,345 345 WTAM=WTAM+WT(I)*100.0 GO TO 355 350 WTAM=WTAM+PHI(I)*WT(I) 355 CONTINUE VARGM=(((GM/100.0)**2)/((S-1)**2))*(VARGM-2.0*FACTOR) SDGM=DSQRT(VARGM)*100.0 CIGM=SDGM*1.64 LOWGM=0.0 IF (GM.GE.CIGM) LOWGM=GM-CIGM HIGM=GM+CIGM JJ=J-1 IF (J-S) 370,370,360 360 DO 365 I=S,JJ LAMBDA(I+1)=(LAMBDA(I)*C(I+1))/(AVEPHI*C(I)) SDLAM(I+1)=999999.0 CILAM(I+1)=999999.0 365 CONTINUE 370 WRITE (6,375) 375 FORMAT (///'0','MODEL 1 -- ANALYSIS UNDER THE ASSUMPTIONS OF TIME' 1,'-SPECIFIC SURVIVAL AND RECOVERY RATES'/) WRITE (6,380) HEADER 380 FORMAT (/' ',20X,A///) WRITE (6,385) 385 FORMAT (' ',34X,'SURVIVAL S(I) (%)') WRITE (6,390) 390 FORMAT ('+',15X,'_______________________________________________', 1'____________') WRITE (6,395) 395 FORMAT (' ',3X,'YEAR',8X,'SURVIVAL',7X,'STANDARD',6X,'COEFFICIE',' 1NTS',4X,'95% CONFIDENCE') WRITE (6,400) 400 FORMAT (' ',30X,' ERROR ',5X,'OF VARIATION',7X,'INTERVAL') WRITE (6,405) 405 FORMAT ('+',15X,'________',7X,'_________',5X,'____________',4X,'__ 1____________') YEAR=YRONE-1 SS=S-1 DO 415 I=1,SS LOWLAM=0.0 LOWPHI=0.0 YEAR=YEAR+1 IF (PHI(I).GE.CIPHI(I)) LOWPHI=PHI(I)-CIPHI(I) HIPHI=PHI(I)+CIPHI(I) IF (LAMBDA(I).GE.CILAM(I)) LOWLAM=LAMBDA(I)-CILAM(I) HILAM=LAMBDA(I)+CILAM(I) WRITE (6,410) YEAR,PHI(I),SDPHI(I),CV(I),LOWPHI,HIPHI 410 FORMAT (' ',3X,I4,3(9X,F6.2),7X,F6.2,' - ',F6.2/) 415 CONTINUE LOWLAM=999999.9 HILAM=999999.9 WRITE (6,420) AM 420 FORMAT (/' ',2X,'ARITHMETIC MEAN SURVIVAL (%) =',F8.2) DO 425 I=1,SS PHI(I)=PHI(I)/100.0 425 CONTINUE SSS=S-2 SUMCOV=0.0 DO 430 I=1,SSS SUMCOV=SUMCOV+(PHI(I)*PHI(I+1)*((1.0/R(I+1))-(1.0/A(I+1)))) 430 CONTINUE SUMCOV=-SUMCOV SUMVAR=0.0 DO 435 I=1,SS SUMVAR=SUMVAR+VARPHI(I) 435 CONTINUE VARAMS=(SUMVAR+2*SUMCOV)/(S-1)**2 SDAMS=DSQRT(VARAMS)*100.0 CIAMS=1.96*SDAMS LOWAMS=AM-CIAMS HIAMS=AM+CIAMS IF (LOWAMS.LT.0.0) LOWAMS=0.0 WRITE (6,440) SDAMS 440 FORMAT (' ',2X,'STANDARD ERROR OF ARITHMETIC MEAN = ',F8.2) WRITE (6,445) LOWAMS,HIAMS 445 FORMAT (' ',2X,'95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR ARITHMETIC MEAN',F8.2, 1'-',F8.2) RMU=AM/100. COMP01=0.0 COMP02=0.0 COMP03=0.0 DO 450 I=1,SS COMP01=COMP01+(PHI(I)-RMU)**2 COMP02=COMP02+VARPHI(I) 450 CONTINUE COMP03=VARAMS*SS IF (S.GT.2) SIGMAS=(COMP01-COMP02+COMP03)/(SS-1) IF (S.EQ.2) SIGMAS=0.0 IF (SIGMAS.GT.0.0) SIGMAS=DSQRT(SIGMAS)*100.0 IF (SIGMAS.LT.0.0) SIGMAS=99999. CVPMS=(SIGMAS/RMU) DO 455 I=1,SS PHI(I)=PHI(I)*100.0 455 CONTINUE C WRITE (6,77) GM C 77 FORMAT (/' ',2X,'GEOMETRIC MEAN SURVIVAL (%) =',F8.2) C WRITE (6,78) SDGM C 78 FORMAT (' ',2X,'STANDARD DEVIATION OF GEOMETRIC MEAN =',F8.2) C WRITE (6,79) LOWGM,HIGM C 79 FORMAT (' ',2X,'95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR GEOMETRIC MEAN ',F8.2, C 1' - ',F8.2) MLS=AM/100.0 VARMLS=(1.0/MLS**2)*(1.0/(DLOG(MLS)**4))*VARAMS MLS=-1.0/DLOG(MLS) SDMLS=(MLS**2*(SDAMS/100.))/(AM/100.) LOWMLS=-1.0/DLOG(LOWAMS/100.) IF (HIAMS/100..LT.1.0) HIMLS=-1.0/DLOG(HIAMS/100.) IF (HIAMS/100..GT.1.0) HIMLS=99999. WRITE (6,460) MLS 460 FORMAT (//' ',2X,'MEAN LIFE SPAN AS AN ADULT = ',F7.2) WRITE (6,465) SDMLS 465 FORMAT (' ',2X,'STANDARD ERROR OF THE MEAN LIFE SPAN = ',F7.2) IF(HIMLS.NE.99999.) GO TO 469 WRITE (6,466) LOWMLS 466 FORMAT(3X,'95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL OF LIFE SPAN', 1F7.2,' - *******'/) GO TO 471 469 WRITE (6,470) LOWMLS,HIMLS 470 FORMAT (' ',2X,'95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL OF LIFE SPAN ',F7.2,' - ', 1F7.2//) 471 CONTINUE DO 480 I=1,S MM=ISAVE(I) DO 475 M=1,MM IF (ISAVE(I).NE.0) MAT(I,J)=MAT(I,J)+MAT(I,J-M) IF (ISAVE(I).NE.0) MAT(I,J-M)=0.0 475 CONTINUE 480 CONTINUE WRITE (6,485) 485 FORMAT (///) WRITE (6,75) WRITE (6,80) WRITE (6,85) YEAR=YRONE-1 DO 505 I=1,S BANDS=A(I) YEAR=YEAR+1 IS=(I-1)*6+1 WRITE(FORMT,91) IS 91 FORMAT ('(1X,I4,1X,I5,',I2,'X,20F6.0)') WRITE (6,FORMT) YEAR,BANDS,(MAT(I,JJ),JJ=I,J) 505 CONTINUE WRITE (6,510) 510 FORMAT (//1X,'MATRIX OF EXPECTED VALUES -- ASSUMING TIME-SPECIFIC' 1,' SURVIVAL AND RECOVERY RATES (MODEL 1)'/) DO 520 I=1,S IS=(I-1)*6+11 WRITE(FORMT,515) IS WRITE (6,FORMT) (E(I,JJ),JJ=I,J) 515 FORMAT ('(',I2,'X,20F6.1)') 520 CONTINUE DO 525 I=1,S DO 525 JJ=I,J IF (E(I,JJ).GT.0.) CHISQ(I,JJ)=((MAT(I,JJ)-E(I,JJ))**2)/E(I,JJ) IF (E(I,JJ).LT..01) CHISQ(I,JJ)=0.0 CHISUM=CHISUM+CHISQ(I,JJ) 525 CONTINUE WRITE (6,530) 530 FORMAT (//1X,'MATRIX OF CHI-SQUARE VALUES -- ASSUMING TIME-SPECIF' 1,'IC SURVIVAL AND RECOVERY RATES (MODEL 1)'/) DO 540 I=1,S IS=(I-1)*6+11 WRITE(FORMT,535) IS 535 FORMAT ('(',I2,'X,20F6.2)') WRITE (6,FORMT) (CHISQ(I,JJ),JJ=I,J) 540 CONTINUE SUMDF=0.0 DO 545 I=1,S SUMDF=SUMDF+ISAVE(I) 545 CONTINUE DF=DF-SUMDF JJ=DF IF (SUMDF.GT.0.0) WRITE (6,550) 550 FORMAT (/1X,'(FREQUENCIES WERE COMBINED WHERE EXPECTED VALUES WER' 1,'E SMALL)'/) WRITE (6,555) 555 FORMAT (//1X,'TEST OF THE NULL HYPOTHESIS THAT THE DATA FIT MODEL' 1,' 1 -- ASSUMING TIME-SPECIFIC SURVIVAL AND RECOVERY RATES'/) WRITE (6,560) CHISUM 560 FORMAT (' CHI-SQUARED VALUE (SAMPLE) =',F8.2) WRITE (6,565) 565 FORMAT (' THEORETICAL CHI-SQUARE VALUE AT THE 5% LEVEL = ') IF (DF-100.0) 570,570,580 570 JJ=DF WRITE (6,575) THCHI(JJ) 575 FORMAT ('+',49X,F8.2) GO TO 590 580 THECHI=.5*(1.64+DSQRT((2.*DF)-1))**2 WRITE (6,575) THECHI IDF=DF 590 WRITE (6,595) JJ 595 FORMAT (' DEGREES OF FREEDOM =',I7) CALL CHI1(JJ,CHISUM) IF (S.EQ.2) GO TO 686 WRITE (6,600) 600 FORMAT ('0',' ESTIMATED COVARIANCE AND CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS: 1S(I) = SURVIVAL RATE IN YEAR I') WRITE (6,605) 605 FORMAT (' ',53X,'F(I) = RECOVERY RATE IN YEAR I ') WRITE (6,610) 610 FORMAT (' ',/' I COVAR(S(I),F(I)) ' 1,' COVAR(F(I),F(I+1)) COVAR(S(I+1),F(I))') SS=S-1 DO 615 I=1,SS PHI(I)=PHI(I)/100.0 COVFS(I)=AHAT(I)*PHI(I)*(((1.0-THETA(I))/(A(I)*THETA(I)))-(1.0/(TH 1ETA(I)*(C(I)/AHAT(I))))) 615 CONTINUE SSS=S-2 DO 620 I=1,SSS COVFSP(I)=(1.0/THETA(I+2))*COVFFP(I) 620 CONTINUE YEAR=YRONE-1 DO 630 I=1,SS YEAR=YEAR+1 WRITE (6,625) YEAR,COVFS(I),COVFFP(I),COVFSP(I) 625 FORMAT (1X,I4,13X,F12.9,25X,F12.9,23X,F12.9) 630 CONTINUE WRITE (6,635) 635 FORMAT (' ',///' I COVAR(S(I),F(I+1)) ' 1,' COVAR(S(I),S(I+1)) COVAR(F(I),F(I+2))') DO 640 I=1,SS COVFPS(I)=PHI(I)*(((1.0/AHAT(I))*COVFFP(I))-((AHAT(I+1)*(1.0-THETA 1(I+1)))/(A(I+1)*THETA(I+1)))) 640 CONTINUE DO 645 I=1,SSS COVSSP(I)=-(PHI(I)*PHI(I+1)*((1.0/R(I+1))-(1.0/A(I+1)))) 645 CONTINUE SSSS=SSS-1 C DO 1060 I=1,SSSS C COVFF2(I)=-((AHAT(I)*AHAT(I+2))/(THETA(I)*(C(I+1)/AHAT(I+1)))* C 1PHI(I)*PHI(I+1)*(THETA(I)-PHI(I)*PHI(I+1)*THETA(I+2))) C 1060 CONTINUE YEAR=YRONE-1 DUMA=COVSSP(SS) COVSSP(SS)=99999. DO 650 I=1,SS YEAR=YEAR+1 WRITE (6,625) YEAR,COVFPS(I),COVSSP(I),COVFF2(I) 650 CONTINUE COVSSP(SS)=DUMA DO 655 I=1,S VARAH(I)=(AHAT(I)/(A(I)*THETA(I)))*(AHAT(I)*(1.0-THETA(I))+(A(I)*( 1THETA(I)-AHAT(I)))/(C(I)/AHAT(I))) SDAH(I)=DSQRT(VARAH(I)) 655 CONTINUE WRITE (6,660) 660 FORMAT (' ',///' I CORR(S(I),F(I)) ' 1,' CORR(S(I),S(I+1)) CORR(S(I),F(I+1))') DO 665 I=1,SS SDPHI(I)=SDPHI(I)/100.0 665 CONTINUE DO 670 I=1,SS CORRFS(I)=COVFS(I)/(SDPHI(I)*SDAH(I)) 670 CONTINUE DO 675 I=1,SSS CORRSS(I)=COVSSP(I)/(SDPHI(I)*SDPHI(I+1)) 675 CONTINUE DO 680 I=1,SSS CORSFP(I)=COVFPS(I)/(SDPHI(I)*SDAH(I+1)) 680 CONTINUE YEAR=YRONE-1 CORRSS(SS)=99999. CORSFP(SS)=99999. DO 685 I=1,SS YEAR=YEAR+1 WRITE (6,625) YEAR,CORRFS(I),CORRSS(I),CORSFP(I) 685 CONTINUE 686 WRITE (6,687) 687 FORMAT(' (QUANTITIES SHOWN AS ****************** ARE NOT ESTIMAB' 1,'LE UNDER MODEL 1)') SUMFIV=0.0 DO 690 I=1,SS SUMFIV=SUMFIV+COVFS(I)+COVFPS(I) 690 CONTINUE SUMFIV=SUMFIV-COVFPS(SS) COVFAS=SUMFIV/SS**2 CORFAS=COVFAS/DSQRT(VARAMS*VARMRR) IF (S.GT.2) WRITE (6,695) CORFAS 695 FORMAT (//' ','CORR(AVE SURVIVAL,AVE RECOVERY RATE) = ',F7.4) IF (S.GT.2) WRITE (6,700) COVFAS 700 FORMAT (' COVAR(AVE SURVIVAL,AVE RECOVERY RATE) =',F13.9) IF (S.GT.2) WRITE (6,705) 705 FORMAT (/1X,'(THE ABOVE COVARIANCE AND CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS A' 1,'RE ESTIMATES OF THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE SAMPLING') IF (S.GT.2) WRITE (6,710) 710 FORMAT (' VARIANCES OF SOME PARAMETER ESTIMATORS ARE RELATED)') IF (S.LT.3) GO TO 815 IF (OPTION.NE.1) GO TO 815 WRITE (6,715) 715 FORMAT ('0','MISCELLANEOUS STATISTICS--SEVERAL ARE APPROPRIATE ', 1'ONLY IF RECOVERY DATA HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR BAND REPORTING AND' 2,' CRIPPLING RATES') WRITE (6,720) 720 FORMAT (' F(I) IS THEN AN ESTIMATE OF KILL RATE AND Y(I)=1.-S(I' 1,')-F(I) IS AN ESTIMATE OF NONHUNTING MORTALITY RATE'///) WRITE (6,725) 725 FORMAT (' Y(I) = 1.0 - S(I) - F(I)'/) DO 730 I=1,SS VAROFF(I)=(AHAT(I)/(A(I)*THETA(I)))*(AHAT(I)*(1.0-THETA(I))+(A(I)* 1(THETA(I)-AHAT(I)))/(C(I)/AHAT(I))) 730 CONTINUE Q8=0.0 Q9=0.0 Q10=0.0 Q11=0.0 C Q1=AM/100.0 Q2=AVAHAT/100.0 Q3=VARAMS Q4=VARMRR Q5=COVFAS Q6=SUMVAR Q7=SUMONE C DO 735 I=1,SS Q8=Q8+COVFS(I) Q9=Q9+PHI(I)**2 Q10=Q10+AHAT(I)**2 Q11=Q11+PHI(I)*AHAT(I) 735 CONTINUE C STAT1=Q5/DSQRT(Q3*Q4) STAT2=(Q9-SS*Q1**2-Q6+SS*Q3)/(SS-1) STAT3=(Q10-SS*Q2**2-Q7+SS*Q4)/(SS-1) STAT4=(Q11-SS*Q1*Q2-Q8+SS*Q5)/(SS-1) STAT5A=-1.*STAT1-DSQRT(Q4/Q3) STAT5B=DSQRT(1.+2.*STAT1*DSQRT(Q4/Q3)+Q4/Q3) STAT5=STAT5A/STAT5B STAT6=Q3+Q4+2.*Q5 STAT7=-1.*(Q5+Q4) STAT8=-1.*STAT4-STAT3 STAT9=STAT2+STAT3+2.*STAT4 WRITE (6,740) 740 FORMAT (' Q STATISTICS:'/) WRITE (6,745) Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4,Q5,Q6 WRITE (6,745) Q7,Q8,Q9,Q10,Q11 745 FORMAT (' ',6F20.12/) WRITE (6,750) 750 FORMAT (//' ','PRIMARY STATISTICS:'/) WRITE (6,745) STAT1,STAT2,STAT3,STAT4,STAT5 WRITE (6,745) STAT6,STAT7,STAT8,STAT9 C STAT2A=999999. STAT3A=999999. STAT9A=999999. RHOSF=999999. RHOYF=999999. WRITE (6,755) 755 FORMAT (///' ','ESTIMATES OF SAMPLING CORRELATIONS:'/) WRITE (6,760) STAT1 760 FORMAT (' CORR(SBAR,FBAR) = ',F12.8) WRITE (6,765) STAT5 765 FORMAT (' CORR(YBAR,FBAR) = ',F12.8//) C WRITE (6,770) 770 FORMAT (' ESTIMATES OF POPULATION VARIANCES AND STANDARD DEVIAT' 1,'IONS:'/) IF (STAT2.GT.0.0) STAT2A=DSQRT(STAT2) IF(STAT2A.EQ.999999.) THEN WRITE (6,773) STAT2 773 FORMAT(1X,'VAR(S) = ',F12.10,8X, 'S.D.(S) = ************') ELSE WRITE (6,775) STAT2,STAT2A 775 FORMAT (' VAR(S) = ',F12.10,8X,'S.D.(S) = ',F12.8) ENDIF IF (STAT3.GT.0.0) STAT3A=DSQRT(STAT3) IF (STAT3A.EQ.999999.) THEN WRITE (6,778) STAT3 778 FORMAT(1X,'VAR(F) = ',F12.10,8X,'S.D.(F) = ************') ELSE WRITE (6,780) STAT3,STAT3A 780 FORMAT (' VAR(F) = ',F12.10,8X,'S.D.(F) = ',F12.8) ENDIF IF (STAT9.GT.0.0) STAT9A=DSQRT(STAT9) IF (STAT9A.EQ.999999.) THEN WRITE (6,783) STAT9 783 FORMAT(1X,'VAR(Y) = ',F12.9,8X,'S.D.(Y) = ************') ELSE WRITE (6,785) STAT9,STAT9A 785 FORMAT (' VAR(Y) = ',F12.9,8X,'S.D.(Y) = ',F12.8//) ENDIF C C WRITE (6,790) 790 FORMAT (' ESTIMATES OF POPULATION COVARIANCES,CORRELATIONS AND' 1,'SLOPES:'/) IF (STAT2*STAT3.GT.0.0) RHOSF=STAT4/DSQRT(STAT2*STAT3) IF(RHOSF.EQ.999999.) THEN WRITE (6,793) STAT4 793 FORMAT(1X,'COVAR(S,F) = ',F14.10,8X,'CORR(S,F) = *********'/) ELSE WRITE (6,795) STAT4,RHOSF 795 FORMAT (' COVAR(S,F) = ',F14.10,8X,'CORR(S,F) = ',F9.6/) ENDIF SLOPSF=STAT4/STAT3 WRITE (6,800) SLOPSF 800 FORMAT (' SLOPE(S VS. F) = ',F12.8/) IF (STAT9*STAT3.GT.0.0) RHOYF=STAT8/DSQRT(STAT9*STAT3) IF (RHOYF.EQ.999999.) THEN WRITE (6,803) STAT8 803 FORMAT(1X,'COVAR(Y,F) = ',F14.10,8X,'CORR(Y,F) = *********'/) ELSE WRITE (6,805) STAT8,RHOYF 805 FORMAT (' COVAR(Y,F) = ',F14.10,8X,'CORR(Y,F) = ',F9.6/) ENDIF SLOPYF=STAT8/STAT3 WRITE (6,810) SLOPYF 810 FORMAT (' SLOPE(Y VS. F) = ',F12.8/) C 815 CONTINUE C 847 DO 820 I=1,S DO 820 JJ=1,J IDATA(I,JJ)=MATRIX(I,JJ) 820 CONTINUE DO 825 I=1,S IYEAR(I)=YRONE+I-1 825 CONTINUE CALL MDL2(N,IYEAR,IDATA,S,J,THCHI,HEADER) IF (OPTION.NE.4) GO TO 827 AVAHAT=0.04 AVEPHI=0.50 827 CALL MDL3(J,S,MATRIX,R,A,AVAHAT,AVEPHI,THCHI,YRONE,HEADER) RETURN END SUBROUTINE MOD1W1 C PRINT HEADINGS AND INPUT DATA WRITE (6,15) 15 FORMAT ('0','MODEL 1') WRITE (6,20) 20 FORMAT (' ********'/) WRITE (6,25) 25 FORMAT (' ANALYSIS UNDER THE ASSUMPTIONS OF TIME-SPECIFIC SURVI' 1,'VAL AND RECOVERY RATES') WRITE (6,30) 30 FORMAT (' (A SYNTHESIS OF MODELS DEVELOPED BY SEBER (1970. BIOM' 1,'ETRIKA) AND ROBSON AND YOUNGS (1971. CORNELL BIOMETRICS') WRITE (6,35) 35 FORMAT (' UNIT PAPER 369))'///) WRITE (6,40) 40 FORMAT (' SPECIFICALLY, THE MODEL STRUCTURE IS: '/) WRITE (6,45) 45 FORMAT (' F(1) S(1)F(2) S(1)S(2)F(3) S(1)S(2)S' 1,'(3)F(4) S(1)S(2)S(3)S(4)F(5)') WRITE (6,50) 50 FORMAT (' F(2) S(2)F(3) S(2)S' 1,'(3)F(4) S(2)S(3)S(4)F(5)') WRITE (6,55) 55 FORMAT (' F(3) S' 1,'(3)F(4) S(3)S(4)F(5)') WRITE (6,60) 60 FORMAT (' ' 1,' F(4) S(4)F(5)'///) RETURN END